May 25, 2024


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Heavy rain belt shifting from foothills to plains of N-W India

The monsoon trough, which lies near to the foothills of the Himalayas and presides about a damp session about East and North-East India, is probably to descend southward from tomorrow (Wednesday) and bring the major to very major rain to bear down on the plains of North-West India and adjoining Central India.

The trough will make it possible for powerful southerly/south-westerly flows from the Arabian Sea and progressively south monsoon flows from the Bay of Bengal to converge about North-West India on Wednesday and Thursday. Until then, the monsoon would stay largely subdued about North-West and adjoining Central India.

The India Meteorological Division (IMD) has reported that the rainfall depth and distribution could enhance about North-West India and Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday to Friday. Given that the trough is heading southward, it is probably that a beneficial cyclonic circulation may kind in the adjoining Bay of Bengal.

Cyclonic circulation in Bay

What conjures up self-confidence in this outlook is the arrival of a monsoon-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave off Africa and its concurrent passage to the West across the Arabian Sea and the Bay. The wave is responsible for formation of lows and depressions, aside from precipitating even monsoon onsets.

In simple fact, the IMD has located a circulation lies about South-East and adjoining South-West Bay but that is envisioned to transfer nearer to the Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast, and head North-West into Peninsular India. It could weaken beneath the impact of a different minimal brewing about the North-East Bay.

It is this circulation that is forecast to strengthen and maintain long more than enough to cross the West Bengal and Odisha coast and established off for West or North-West India, the first full-fledged minimal from the Bay to do that during this period. It would make certain spatial and temporal distribute of rainfall along the way and across.

Hefty to very major rain

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated major to very major falls about Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern States (predominantly Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya) till Thursday and about Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday to Friday.

Isolated extremely major falls are forecast about the hills of West Bengal advert Sikkim till Thursday even as it rained about Uttarakhand and Bihar on Tuesday. Meanwhile in the South, pretty widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated major to very major falls are forecast about Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala during upcoming four-five times as the monsoon strengthens about each the Arabian Sea and the Bay.